The European Union Targets minus 55% (Part 2)
In Part one of this story, we discuss how these targets came about. This second part will look at how technology has evolved during the past 20 years and how this will impact Shipping.
You might recall our statement from the earlier part of this story "The European Union has looked into a 55% CO2 reduction counting from 1990 till 2030 but wants to be zero by 2050". This statement raised a few questions around the timeline of 1990 till 2030. What has changed in these years that provides such a comprehensive framework?
Solar Energy was in its early incubation period in the '90s and only started to take off around 20 years later.
Whilst in the '90s, large scale solar power as a source for cars, ships and other means of transportation was neither possible due to technologies availability nor through the possibility to store this energy and make it logistically movable, it is part of our lives today.
Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2020) - "Renewable Energy". Published online at OurWorldInData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy' [Online Resource]
The knowhow has truly evolved from incubation into its gilded age and will most likely reach the golden age somewhere in the next 20 years. Though it is not only solar, that has taken off. The wind has also established itself as a sustainable power source. The world has increased its capacity to create power from wind six times over the last ten years.
In short …
…solar and wind are ready to transform into their golden age.
Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser (2020)
But what about Hydrogen? The German Car Industry has argued for years that it is the better technology. As it looks like, Shipping will also benefit massively from Hydrogen rather than battery packs filled with energy created from solar and wind turbines. For this, we have to change sources and look at a recent study by SEB Norway. A corporate bank that has gained significant knowledge in the sustainable energy market.
SEB …
has developed a model that describes how energy follows a similar pattern as the IT branch has been doing for years.
Courtesy: SEB Norway https://sebgroup.com/
Namely, the Incubation phase (where technology is developed but is too costly for mass production), the gilded age (where technology is scaled and has a second wave of innovation) and the golden age (where technology is fully effective). With this model, SEB has shown that solar and wind are in phase two, the gilded age, whitest green Hydrogen is on the market, but still in a stage of incubation, meaning that it is a future technology not reached mass-market appeal yet.
So the '90s were a significant turning point to kick start the innovation, even though we might have not immediately seen the results because it does take time to establish the technology, distribution channels and gain acceptance. And that brings us into the year 2050. If we consider large scale distribution and usage of Hydrogen, then it will take at least till 2035 until this technology has moved into the Gilded Age and pending 2050 before we reach the Golden Age. Hydrogen Europe, an association focused on this technology, has summarized this in their predictions with the market growth phase starting in 2035.
Hydrogen Europe, an association focused on this technology, has summarized this in their predictions with the market growth phase starting in 2035.
So what does that mean for Shipping in the years 2020 till 2050? Read our part three to learn more about this drastic change in the industry.
